That High-Paying Tokyo Office Job? AI Wants It.

An expert says AI isn't coming for the factory workers, it's coming for the well-paid folks in the office. 😬

So what's the new panic?

We’ve all gotten used to hearing about ChatGPT, which apparently has the nickname “Chappy” in some circles. Cute.

But according to Hitoshi Nakamura, the head of BlueMo Securities and author of a new book on AI, we’ve been looking in the wrong direction. For years, the big fear was that automation would replace manual labor. You know, robots on the assembly line, that sort of thing.

Turns out, the real target is us. Or, at least, the jobs many of us moved here for. Nakamura says the roles AI is most likely to replace are the high-salary, white-collar jobs conducted in an office. Yes, the ones with the nice view and the twice-a-year bonus.

The logic is kinda brutal

Remember all the hype about self-driving cars about a decade ago? The thinking was that we were on the verge of an era with no human drivers. And yet, here we are, and I still get cut off by taxis on the Shuto Expressway.

Nakamura points out that this is because replacing a driver's wage just isn't that big of a market. The real money, and thus the real value in replacement, is in positions with much higher personnel costs.

AI, on the other hand, is perfectly suited to take over tasks done by analysts, marketers, consultants… basically anyone who spends their day in front of a computer screen making decent money. The potential for cost savings is just so much bigger. It’s not personal, it’s just a much better return on investment.

So should I start learning pottery now?

Before you trade your laptop for a potter's wheel, there are a couple of brakes on this runaway train. First are the physical limits. These massive AI models run in data centers that consume truly absurd amounts of electricity, water, and semiconductors. You can't just wish those into existence.

Second, and maybe more importantly, is government regulation. And if there’s one thing we can count on, it’s a healthy dose of bureaucratic caution. By the time all the necessary committees are formed and the reports are stamped with a hanko, we might all be retired anyway.

Besides, my office still has a fax machine. I think I'm safe for another decade.